Prediction Log

Predictions logged with date and basis. Outcomes appended on the next evaluation cycle.

Week ending 2026-05-25

• Evaluated: 0/0 from prior week. Accuracy: N/A (no prior predictions existed).
• New predictions for next week:
  • Prediction 1 (confidence 0.55): FSD China subscription attach rate or early user data will drive at least one formal analyst note or price target revision within the next 7 days.
  • Prediction 2 (confidence 0.62): SpaceX IPO speculation (circulating June 12 date) will continue to generate news flow correlated with TSLA intraday volatility but will not produce a sustained close-to-close move exceeding +/-5% absent a confirmed structural Tesla-SpaceX announcement.
  • Prediction 3 (confidence 0.44): Tesla Energy segment items (Meta deal, Houston factory) will receive IR-level clarification or denial within two weeks; stock reaction on confirmation day estimated +/-2%. (Low-confidence — primary source confirmation absent.)
  • Prediction 4 (confidence 0.65): TSLA will exhibit asymmetric factor response pattern — outperforming QQQ/SPY on positive FSD/autonomy headlines and underperforming on Musk-distraction or robotaxi-safety headlines — consistent with this week's observed behavior.

Week ending 2026-06-01

• Evaluated: 2 hits / 3 evaluated (1 pending carry-forward). Accuracy: 67% on evaluated predictions.
  • P1 (FSD China drives analyst PT revision): PARTIAL — analyst commentary responded to FSD news flow broadly but no named PT revision citing China attach rate specifically.
  • P2 (SpaceX IPO speculation no >5% move without confirmed deal): HIT — TSLA rose ~2% mid-week on SpaceX narrative without structural announcement; no >5% close-to-close move occurred.
  • P3 (Tesla Energy IR clarification within 2 weeks): PENDING — still within window; carrying forward.
  • P4 (TSLA outperforms on FSD headlines, underperforms on robotaxi-safety headlines): HIT — Friday −1.43% vs. SPY +0.25% on robotaxi gap/FSD safety news; mid-week +2% on FSD/accumulation news.
• New predictions for next week:
  • Prediction 1 (confidence 0.63): Robotaxi execution gap narrative will continue to suppress TSLA outperformance vs. QQQ on any week without a verifiable fleet expansion or new city launch announcement; TSLA will underperform QQQ on at least two of five trading sessions absent a positive robotaxi catalyst.
  • Prediction 2 (confidence 0.60): SpaceX IPO proximity (June 12 speculated) will produce TSLA intraday volatility correlated with SpaceX news flow, but close-to-close moves attributable to SpaceX alone will remain under ±3% absent a confirmed Tesla-SpaceX structural announcement or SEC filing.
  • Prediction 3 (confidence 0.52): Any primary-source data point on post-FSD-price-hike subscriber take rates or Q2 early delivery trajectory will produce a ±2–3% close-to-close move on the day of disclosure; direction depends on whether data confirms or contradicts the demand elasticity risk thesis.
  • Prediction 4 (confidence 0.48): Tesla Energy segment (Meta deal, Houston factory) will remain unconfirmed at IR or SEC filing level through the week ending 2026-06-08; narrative will persist without data. (Low-confidence — primary source confirmation has not materialized across two consecutive weeks.)

Month 2026-06

• Accuracy this month: 63% (2.5 of 4 evaluated; 1 miss, 1 partial, 2 hits).
• Predictions for next month:
  • Prediction 1 (confidence 0.65): Q2 2026 deliveries (expected late July) will be the month's primary catalyst; if China volume sustains the April +36% YoY trajectory and Model 3 battery delay is resolved, TSLA will outperform QQQ on the delivery-day close by at least 200 basis points. If deliveries disappoint relative to consensus, the robotaxi-credibility and FSD-litigation headwinds will amplify the negative reaction.
  • Prediction 2 (confidence 0.58): Post-June 12, the SpaceX IPO factor will rapidly fade as a TSLA driver absent a confirmed Tesla-SpaceX structural announcement or SEC filing; TSLA intraday volatility correlated to SpaceX news flow will decrease materially in the two weeks following the IPO date.
  • Prediction 3 (confidence 0.52): The Multi-Continent FSD Litigation Cluster will produce at least one formal legal development (court filing, class certification, or regulatory response) in July that generates a ±2% close-to-close TSLA move on the day of disclosure; direction depends on whether the development is a dismissal/settlement (positive) or certification/expansion (negative).
  • Prediction 4 (confidence 0.44): Tesla Energy segment (Meta deal, Houston solar factory) will remain unconfirmed at IR or SEC filing level through July earnings; the factor will only receive primary-source confirmation if Tesla includes it in Q2 earnings guidance or a formal 8-K filing. (Low-confidence — pattern of non-confirmation now spans four consecutive weeks.)