TSLA Correlation Model
Last updated: end of June 2026.
FSD Geographic Expansion
- Category: Product-Tech
- Confidence: 0.72
- Evidence count: 12
- Last seen: 2026-06-01
- Dormant: NO
- Gap vs. narrative: 0.10
- Description: Four EU country approvals in five days; subscription-only migration confirmed in Europe/UK; FSD Supervised launched in China confirmed by CNBC and IBD; stock outperformance directly observed on confirmation days across multiple weeks. Narrative and price action aligned with high consistency. New litigation headwinds create partial offset but do not negate geographic expansion signal.
Robotaxi Execution Gap / Competitive Displacement
- Category: Product-Tech
- Confidence: 0.68
- Evidence count: 8
- Last seen: 2026-06-01
- Dormant: NO
- Gap vs. narrative: 0.18
- Description: 100-unit Texas deployment vs. Waymo 1,000+ confirmed by three independent sources; linked to stock underperformance on disclosure days; management credibility cost from missed 2025 promise now embedded in analyst discourse. Dallas commercial launch (May 31) and dedicated vehicle confirmation are partial offsets that have not yet reversed the negative framing. Evidence count raised as Dallas launch adds a new data point.
FSD Safety / Data Quality Skepticism
- Category: Regulatory-Legal
- Confidence: 0.65
- Evidence count: 10
- Last seen: 2026-06-01
- Dormant: NO
- Gap vs. narrative: 0.15
- Description: Reuters investigative report (internal AI trainers distrust safety metrics); China class-action; South Korea class-action; NHTSA visibility probe ongoing; fatal Autopilot crash; Tesla FSD rename before litigation; 50% FSD price hike concurrent with safety skepticism cycle creates demand elasticity risk. Germany marketing win is partial offset. Evidence count elevated as litigation cluster grows.
FSD Monetization Model Shift
- Category: Product-Tech
- Confidence: 0.61
- Evidence count: 6
- Last seen: 2026-06-01
- Dormant: NO
- Gap vs. narrative: 0.20
- Description: Subscription-only migration confirmed in Europe/UK; $99/month base tier confirmed; 50% FSD price hike live; Q2 ARPU and churn metrics are first confirmation data points at late-July earnings. Market partially pricing in. Demand elasticity vs. pricing power unresolved; this factor bifurcates at Q2 earnings.
Executive / Musk Distraction + Merger Financial Risk
- Category: Executive-Elon
- Confidence: 0.57
- Evidence count: 11
- Last seen: 2026-06-01
- Dormant: NO
- Gap vs. narrative: 0.22
- Description: SpaceX merger framing shifted decisively from upside optionality to "loses money from day one" (Fortune); $4B Musk share sale completed; 2018 pay package share registration adds dilution perception; AI talent departing to Anthropic; SpaceX IPO June 12 window generates intraday TSLA volatility but not sustained directional moves. Confidence raised from 0.55 prior on accumulating negative framing evidence.
Multi-Continent FSD Litigation Cluster
- Category: Regulatory-Legal
- Confidence: 0.55
- Evidence count: 6
- Last seen: 2026-06-01
- Dormant: NO
- Gap vs. narrative: 0.18
- Description: New factor elevated this month. China consumer lawsuit escalated to class-action; South Korea class-action filed; US class-action exposure ongoing; three-continent coordination pattern on capability-vs-marketing gap. Reuters internal source provides potential evidentiary corroboration for plaintiffs. FSD rename before litigation raises legal liability risk. Distinct from FSD Safety/Data Quality factor which tracks regulatory/safety narrative; this tracks formal litigation risk and liability pricing.
Macro EV Competitive Pressure
- Category: Macro-EV-Market
- Confidence: 0.55
- Evidence count: 8
- Last seen: 2026-06-01
- Dormant: NO
- Gap vs. narrative: 0.25
- Description: Waymo 10x deployment lead explicitly priced as direct competitive headwind in analyst commentary; XPeng robotaxi mass production rolling; BYD crash liability guarantee asymmetrically positions on safety accountability; BYD/CATL battery cost pressure ongoing. Not producing sustained TSLA de-rating but suppressing multiple expansion. Tesla China +36% YoY April sales is a partial counter-signal.
Robotaxi Safety / Regulatory Scrutiny
- Category: Regulatory-Legal
- Confidence: 0.55
- Evidence count: 9
- Last seen: 2026-06-01
- Dormant: NO
- Gap vs. narrative: 0.20
- Description: Texas robotaxi crash investigations and deepening safety probe; NHTSA FSD visibility investigation with self-cleaning camera patent filed in response; fatal Autopilot crash May 30; Austin robotaxi plans hit "major snag"; recurring negative stock reaction pattern on safety-specific sessions. Evidence count raised on continuing accumulation.
Institutional Positioning Flows
- Category: Analyst-Ratings
- Confidence: 0.48
- Evidence count: 8
- Last seen: 2026-06-01
- Dormant: NO
- Gap vs. narrative: 0.22
- Description: Net institutional accumulation positive this month: H&H International +3.4M shares, Bleakley Financial increased, Knights of Columbus increased, Jefferies increased, Encompass More Asset Management +5,515 shares, Vectors Research Management increased, International Assets Investment Management +4,790 shares. Offset: Trek Financial reduced, CFO sold 3,000 shares after option exercise, director sold 26,409 shares after option exercise, analyst consensus "Hold," PT range $220–$428. Net buy-side flow constructive; sell-side consensus neutral-to-cautious.
Tesla Energy / New Business Lines
- Category: Product-Tech
- Confidence: 0.47
- Evidence count: 4
- Last seen: 2026-06-01
- Dormant: NO
- Gap vs. narrative: 0.45
- Description: Meta clean energy deal and Houston solar factory now appearing across four consecutive weeks without IR or SEC filing confirmation. Narrative building in financial media but gap between story and primary source validation remains wide. Confidence unchanged; requires IR confirmation or Q2 earnings disclosure to move higher.
SpaceX IPO / Musk Portfolio Reallocation
- Category: Executive-Elon
- Confidence: 0.43
- Evidence count: 9
- Last seen: 2026-06-01
- Dormant: NO
- Gap vs. narrative: 0.52
- Description: June 12 IPO window widely cited; merger financial drag framing now dominant over upside framing. Correlated with TSLA intraday volatility but not sustained close-to-close moves exceeding ±3% — confirmed by two consecutive weeks of prediction validation. Post-June 12 relevance will be reassessed; if IPO occurs without structural Tesla-SpaceX announcement, this factor likely decreases in relevance rapidly.
Regulatory Friction (FSD Approvals)
- Category: Regulatory-Legal
- Confidence: 0.47
- Evidence count: 7
- Last seen: 2026-06-01
- Dormant: NO
- Gap vs. narrative: 0.26
- Description: Estonia and multiple EU approvals positive; Germany marketing win confirmed twice; Lithuania pace-vs-readiness mismatch; South Korea and China litigation negative; NHTSA US probe ongoing. Net friction signal slightly improved by EU wins but Asia-Pacific litigation accumulates. Partially subsumed by Multi-Continent FSD Litigation Cluster factor.
Model Y Price / Promotional Activity
- Category: Production-Deliveries
- Confidence: 0.44
- Evidence count: 4
- Last seen: 2026-06-01
- Dormant: NO
- Gap vs. narrative: 0.30
- Description: Free Supercharging on Model 3 suggests demand management or inventory pressure; Model 3 production delayed by battery issue; Canadian Model 3 config constraints; $31,000 Model 3 available internationally but not in US. Insufficient to score as primary driver; watch Q2 ASP and promotional intensity disclosure.
Product Line Rationalization (Model S/X EOL)
- Category: Product-Tech
- Confidence: 0.38
- Evidence count: 2
- Last seen: 2026-05-21
- Dormant: NO
- Gap vs. narrative: 0.35
- Description: Market treated Model S/X discontinuation as net neutral; final Signature Edition delivery event postponed. Confirmed as low-weight factor; confidence unchanged. Will become dormant if no new evidence by end of July 2026.
Optimus Development Risk
- Category: Product-Tech
- Confidence: 0.32
- Evidence count: 1
- Last seen: 2026-05-28
- Dormant: NO
- Gap vs. narrative: 0.55
- Description: New factor. Unspecified "major snag" in Optimus humanoid robot development reported (Yahoo Finance Australia, 2026-05-28). First negative report on this program. Scope, timeline, and capex impact unknown. Starting confidence low; requires follow-up disclosure to score higher. Previously this factor was not tracked separately as it had only positive narrative with no evidence of negative developments.